KEY DEVELOPMENTS – COMMERCIAL INCIDENTS
During the monitoring period 1 – 7 July Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the following incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region:
There were no reported or identified incidents involving commercial vessels in the region during the monitoring period.
IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE VESSEL: The last reported position of the Iranian intelligence vessel, the Behshad, was on 2 June in the vicinity of Bostanu port in the Persian Gulf in Iranian territorial waters.
PIRACY RELATED EVENTS
Since June 2024 Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the following piracy related events in the wider region:
SOMALIA: On 18 June Puntland Police arrested Piracy Action Group (PAG) ringleader Abshir Abdi Jowfe, identified as having orchestrated the hijacking of the commercial vessel, the MV ABDULAH in April off the coast of Somalia. The Puntland police were supported by Somali security forces.
Jowfe’s arrest marked the third PAG member to be arrested June. Jowfe was located in the Sinai area north of Galkayo following an extensive police and intelligence operation, which culminated in his arrest near Mudug and Nugaal.
Fellow PAG associate of Jowfe, Mohamed Sufi Rasas was arrested by police in Garowe after he had been in hiding for a number of days.
A number of PAG members have dispersed to other parts of the country following the payment of the ransom for the MV ABDULLAH. Some PAG members have reportedly relocated to coastal areas to plan further attacks on commercial vessels.
MSCHOA Update (28 June): Based on the most recent piracy-related incidents reported in late May and early June, MSCHOA estimates that at least two or more PAGs could be operating off the East Gulf of Aden and in the South Somali Basin.
The successful hijack of the MV ABDULLAH is believed to have had a strong positive impact for the rise of piracy cases. However monsoon season is expected to have an affect on PAG activities in certain regions.
Since late May two merchant vessels have reported suspicious approaches in the Gulf of Aden and in the South Somali Basin.
Since the end of November 2023, around 19 dhows have been hijacked. Whist most have been released, several remain unaccounted for.
EUNAVFOR Operation ATALANTA has identified several possible pirate logistic locations on the Somali coastline situated between Xaafuun and the village of Garacad, with a hot spot north of Eyl.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – MILITARY ACTIVITY
During the monitoring period 1 – 7 July RMS identified the following incidents involving US coalition forces in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, obtained from military and open sources:
HOUTHI RADAR STRIKE: On 1 July US forces destroyed one Houthi radar site in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen, considered as posing an imminent threat to coordinate attacks on vessels in the region.
HOUTHI RADAR STRIKE: Between 2-3 July US forces destroyed two Houthi radar sites in Houthi controlled areas of Yemen.
USV INTERCEPT: On 3 July US forces identified and destroyed two uncrewed surface vessels (USV) operating in the Red Sea. The USVs were considered as posing an direct and imminent threat to vessels in the region and therefore destroyed.
COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION: During 3-4 July two air attacks involving US and British armed forces targeted the Midi district in Hajjah Governorate, northwest Yemen targeting Houthi military sites and assets. The airstrikes occurred hours after a speech by Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, in which he addressed the ongoing incidents in Gaza, the Red and Arab Seas and negotiations between the Houthi group and Yemen International Recognised Government.
USV INTERCEPT: On 4 July US forces destroyed two Houthi USVs in the Red Sea and one Houthi radar site in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 7 July US forces destroyed two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 7 July, a coalition warship serving as part of EUNAVFOR Operation ASPIDES destroyed two Houthi UAVs over the Gulf of Aden. No injuries or damage was reported by US, coalition or commercial vessels.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – HOUTHI MISSILE STATISTICS
Figures 1 and 2 identifies the number of missiles, UAV, USVs and UUVs launched, or prepared to be imminently launched, by Houthi militants from Yemen targeting commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. Figures have incorporated statistics from vessels hit, near misses and pre- emptive strikes on-land in Yemen by US-led Coalition forces but not those resulting from large scale coordinated military action. In some cases the destined target of Houthi weapons including destroyed on-land in Yemen cannot not be verified and has therefore been categorised as ‘Not Known’ (NK). Where no dates are provided there were no reported incidents or data available for that period.
ANALYSIS: The monitoring period saw a reduction in attacks compared to last week and those
prior. The main focus of Houthi attacks have predominantly been vessels in the
Red Sea region.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – SECURITY INCIDENT MAPPING
1 Jan – 7 July 2024
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
During the monitoring period 1 – 7 July RMS identified the following key regional developments:
•Increased escalatory rhetoric between Israel and Hezbollah signals that military escalation is likely over the coming weeks. Hezbollah attacks remains calibrated with IDF attacks on Hezbollah positions and IDF operations in Gaza and in particular Rafah.
•On 4 July, Hezbollah launched one of its largest attacks on Israel since 7 October 2023 with over 200 rocket and drone attacks in one day. The group targeted several locations in northern Israel but with particular focus on Mount Hermon in the disputed Golan territory. The response followed the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander Mohammed Nimah Nasser by Israeli forces
•This incident follows an earlier comment by the Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati stating the country was in a ‘state of war’ due to the ongoing clashes between Hezbollah and Israel. However Mikati emphasised his commitment to pursue a diplomatic solution.
•The US dispatched the US warship, the USS Wasp to the eastern Mediterranean in an effort to diffuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The warship will be made available to evacuate civilians in case of hostilities in Lebanon.
•The Iranian mission to the UN warned Israel that the involvement of all Iranian proxies was a possible option if Israel proceeded with an invasion of Lebanon. This threat is unlikely to change following the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian who secured the Iranian Presidential vote on 6 July and promised to move Iran away from brink of war.
•Iranian President Pezeshkian’s election is unlikely to significantly affect the country’s posture in the region, including its relations with proxies such as Hizbullah, and its adopted strategy towards Israel since 7 October, or the ongoing rapprochement with Arab countries.
•On 7 July the Houthis appeared to threaten the Saudi government after posting photos of a number of Saudi airports and ports. The post came shortly after the Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi threatened to strike Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests should it continue its “hostile” role against Yemen by supporting Israeli and US action in region.
•The contained images of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, Ras Tanura Port, Jizan Port, King Abdullah Port in the Economic Zone, and Jeddah Port.
•White House national security spokesperson John Kirby confirmed the US remained focused on taking away Houthi capability to conduct attacks on shipping in the region but also acknowledged the group remain determined and well-supplied, despite military efforts to intercept Iranian skiffs headed to Yemen.
ASSESSMENT
•Vessels linked to Israel, the US and UK will remain primary, but not sole targets for Houthi militants.
•Houthi militants and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq will likely continue to target the Israeli port of Eilat in the Red Sea.
•Houthi use of inaccurate data and intelligence pertaining to target identification, and/or maintaining an effective command and control procedure with local units, places non Israeli, US and UK vessels at a risk of being misidentified, including Russian and Chinese linked vessels.
•The US and its partners will continue to conduct pre-emptive strikes against Houthi targets on-land in an attempt to degrade Houthi military capability and prevent Houthi weaponry to be used to target commercial shipping. This capability is likely to be impacted in the short-term as a consequence of the USS Dwight D Eisenhower’s departure from the region without a suitable substitute.
•The US will continue its efforts to intercept vessels smuggling weapon components from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen and enhance its intelligence collection methods to support interdiction operations, as well as coordinate military strikes against Houthi weapon sites, facilities and capabilities.
•The US government will continue to push for a diplomatic solution for the Israel-Hamas conflict with regional partners due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and attempt to prevent escalatory military activity in the region, particularly in Lebanon.
•Any ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, may see a temporary pause in attacks, but continues to appear unlikely at present.
•High likelihood of intensified attacks by Israel on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon over the coming weeks due to increased Hezbollah activity along the Lebanon-Israel border.
RECOMMENDATIONS
•Merchant and other vulnerable vessels are recommended to register with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa’s Voluntary Registration Scheme due to heightened piracy threat in the Indian ocean.
•Avoid being in vicinity of Iranian Behshad vessel. Avoid where possible transiting locations within the UAE and Iranian coastlines due to the risk from Iranian military boarding parties.
•Vessels operating in the Indian Ocean area are urged to heighten their vigilance due expanded risk area from Houthi missile and UAV attack and continued threat from Pirate Activity Groups (PAGs) in the area.
•Report any Suspicious Sightings and be aware of the risk of Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) with dummy crews and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) attacks.
•Consider utilising a digital monitoring system, which incorporates UAV/UUV drone monitoring to warn of potential attack and use of physical barriers, such as nets and underwater barriers, that can be deployed to prevent UUVs from approaching a ship. These barriers can entangle or obstruct the movement of a UUV.
•Ensure crew conduct drills and training exercises to respond to UUV threats so that they are well-prepared to take appropriate action in the event of an incident.
•Follow guidance on loitering munitions as per the OCIMF website: https://www.ocimf.org/publications/information-papers/loitering-munitions-%E2%80%93-the-threat-to-merchant-ships
•Implement and review BMP5 in particular section 2, which describes non-piracy threats and the Global Anti-Piracy Guide.
•Consider mentioning vessel location to Flag Authorities.
•Inform UKMTO/MSCHoA of vessel movements and ensure radar is kept on.
•Communicate with local agents for any local information or intelligence.
•Keep VHF Ch16 on and pay attention to advisories. Ensure strict surveillance of communications and establish communication with all approaching vessels.
•Do not allow small boats to approach or dock. Consider utilizing an armed security team aboard.
•Ensure there is Hard Cover available if on deck and that it is accessible.
•Ensure a Secondary Muster Station is considered and identified to crew and not just the citadel.
•Maintain Bridge Watches. (Please be aware at night, small, slow vessels without a wake are difficult to detect on radar). Keep Traffic on Upper Deck to a minimum
•Ensure all fire-fighting equipment is checked and available for immediate use. Including the emergency fire pump and that relevant maintenance has been conducted.
