KEY DEVELOPMENTS – COMMERCIAL INCIDENTS
During the monitoring period 15 – 21 July Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the following incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region:
USV ATTACK: On 15 July approximately 70NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen three small craft approached Monaco-operated, and Panama-flagged oil tanker BENTLEY I. The crafts were described as blue and white in colour of which two had three passengers aboard, whilst the third appeared to be unmanned, suspected to be a uncrewed surface vessel (USV). The small unmanned craft reportedly collided with the vessel twice whilst the other two opened fire on the vessel during an exchange with the armed security team aboard. The vessel conducted self-protection measures and after 15 minutes the crafts aborted the attack. In addition to the attack, the vessel reported three missiles having exploded close to its location the same day. The vessel and crew were reported safe and proceeded to its next port of call.
USV ATTACK: On 15 July, the Liberia-flagged oil tanker CHIOS LION was struck by a USV around 97NM northwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The USV impacted the port side of the vessel causing damage. The crew were reported safe and the vessel proceeded with its voyage.
UAV/MISSILE ATTACK: On 19 July, the Singapore-flagged commercial vessel, the LOBIVIA was struck by unknown projectiles whilst in the Gulf of Aden, approximately 83NM south-east of Aden, Yemen. The crew were reported safe.
UAV/USV STRIKE: On 20 July, the Liberian flagged vessel, PUMBA was subject to attacks approximately 64NM off Al Mukha. The first attack involved a UAV which exploded in close proximity to the vessel causing some minor damage. The second involving a USV which exploded close to the vessel after the armed security team opened fire on the USV. Subsequent observations of UAV activity in the area were reported. No injuries were sustained.
MISSILE IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE VESSEL: The last reported position of the Iranian intelligence vessel, the BEHSHAD, was on 20 July 6NM south-west of Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – PIRACY RELATED ACTIVITY
During the monitoring period 15 – 21 July Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the following incidents in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean region utilizing information:
There were no reported or identified piracy incidents involving commercial vessels in the region during the monitoring period.
MSCHOA Update (12 July):
Over the past two weeks it has been assessed by EUNAVFOR Operation ATALANTA that the PAG operating near Central Somalia has moved southbound to the South Somali Basin due to current weather conditions. Meanwhile the PAG operating south of Socotra has moved northbound to the eastern Gulf of Aden to avoid monsoon weather.
It is assessed that due to the absence of recent piracy related incidents and monsoon weather impacting the central Somali basin, that no PAGs are active in the area, however there remains a realistic possibility of a piracy attack in the East Gulf of Aden and South Somali Basin due to improving weather conditions.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – MILITARY ACTIVITY
During the monitoring period 15 – 21 July RMS identified the following incidents involving US coalition forces in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, obtained from military and open sources:
UAV INTERCEPT: On 15 July US forces destroyed five Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), three over the Red Sea and two over Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
USV/MISSILE ATTACK: On 15 July, Houthis militants launched multiple attacks against MT BENTLEY I, a Panama-flagged, Israel-owned, Monaco-operated tanker vessel in the Red Sea carrying vegetable oil from Russia to China. Three surface vessels were used in the attack, one uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and two small boats. Houthis militants also launched an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen, over the Red Sea toward MT BENTLEY I.
MISSILE/UAV INTERCEPT: On 18 July US forces destroyed two surface-to-air missiles (SAM) and four uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) on the ground in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 20 July US forces successfully destroyed one Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) over the Red Sea.
USV INTERCEPT: On 21 July US forces destroyed four Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed surface vessels (USV) in the Red Sea, determined as posing an imminent threat to vessels in the region.
since November 2023
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – HOUTHI MISSILE STATISTICS
Figures 1 and 2 identifies the number of missiles, UAV, USVs and UUVs launched, or prepared to be imminently launched, by Houthi militants from Yemen targeting commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. Figures have incorporated statistics from vessels hit, near misses and pre- emptive strikes on-land in Yemen by US-led Coalition forces but not those resulting from large scale coordinated military action. In some cases the destined target of Houthi weapons including destroyed on-land in Yemen cannot not be verified and has therefore been categorised as ‘Not Known’ (NK). Where no dates are provided there were no reported incidents or data available for that period.
ANALYSIS: The monitoring period saw an intensification in the number of weapons utilised in attacking commercial vessels, building on the number of weapons used in such attacks the week prior. The attacks were once again focused on targeting vessels in the Red Sea. Despite this the Houthis continue to target vessels passing through the Gulf of Aden, albeit to a lesser extent but just as intense.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – SECURITY INCIDENT MAPPING
1 Jan – 21 July 2024
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
During the monitoring period 8 – 14 July RMS identified the following key regional developments:
•The Houthis on 16 July released footage of an explosives-laden USV attack that targeted the tanker CHIOS LION the previous day. Satellite imagery from 16 July appears to show oil slick from the tanker. Meanwhile, on 15 July the oil tanker BENTLEY I, was involved in five separate assaults involving missiles and a USV over a ten-hour period using missiles. Small arms fire was also used to target the vessel, which the onboard armed security team responded to resulting in an armed exchange.
•The head of the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) stated that its headquarters was “flattened” in Gaza as a result of the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile the US announced the closure of its aid pier in Gaza, that had been built in May. US Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed that aid to Gaza would now be shipped via the Israeli port of Ashdod.
•On 16 July two one-way attack drones, believed to have been launched by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq a member of the Iranian Axis of Resistance, targeted the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar province (Iraq) where US forces are stationed. At least one drone was intercepted by US countermeasures. There were no reports of injuries.
•Between 14-17 July, Commander of the US Central Command, General. Michael Erik Kurilla, visited Israel where he met with the Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, and key members of the Israeli Defense Forces and other national security agencies to discuss regional security matters.
•On 18 July, the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, passed a resolution rejecting the creation of an independent Palestinian state, stating that such a state would pose “an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens”.
•On 19 July, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the Hague issued a non-binding advisory opinion indicating that the continued Israeli presence in the Palestinian Territories was illegal under international law.
•On 19 July, an alleged Houthi strike on a residential building using a suspected long-range UAV in Tel Aviv killed an individual and injured eight others. This would be the first occasion the Houthi had launched an attack that had successfully reached Israel resulting in a death.
•On 20 July, in response to the alleged Houthi UAV attack, the Israeli military confirmed they had conducted airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled port of Hudaydah. The port has long been considered a key entry point for Iranian weapons to enter Yemen to the Houthi group. Fuel depots were also targeted. The Israeli government had acted unilaterally in relation to the attack. According to the Houthi controlled Ministry of Health, the strike killed six people and injured 87 others.
•Regular armed exchanges between the IDF and Hezbollah along Israel’s northern Israeli border continue with sporadic episodes of military escalation expected over the coming weeks. Despite recent escalatory rhetoric from both the Israeli government and Hezbollah, both are keen to avoid uncontrolled confrontation.
ASSESSMENT
•Whilst there remains a reduced risk of piracy in the central Somali Basin over the coming weeks due to poor weather conditions, the risk of pirate attacks is heightened in the East Gulf of Aden and South Somali Basin maritime regions.
•Houthi militants are expected to continue to target commercial vessels in the coming days using combined weaponry, despite Israeli airstrikes on Hudaydah. Whilst the group has had recent successes with USVs, missiles and UAVs will continue to constitute the majority of weapons launched.
•Houthi militants and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq will likely continue to target Israeli territory, despite likely Israeli retaliatory action.
•Houthi use of inaccurate data and intelligence pertaining to target identification, and/or maintaining an effective command and control procedure with local units, places non Israeli, US and UK vessels at a risk of being misidentified.
•The US and its partners will continue to conduct pre-emptive strikes against Houthi targets on-land in an attempt to degrade Houthi military capability and prevent Houthi weaponry to be used to target commercial shipping. This capability is likely to be impacted in the short-term as a consequence of the USS Dwight D Eisenhower’s departure from the region without a suitable substitute.
•The US will continue its efforts to intercept vessels smuggling weapon components from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen and enhance its intelligence collection methods to support interdiction operations, as well as coordinate military strikes against Houthi weapon sites, facilities and capabilities.
•The US government will continue to push for a diplomatic solution for the Israel-Hamas conflict with regional partners due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and attempt to prevent escalatory military activity in the region, particularly in Lebanon.
•Any ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, may see a temporary pause in attacks, but continues to appear unlikely at present.
•High likelihood of intensified attacks by Israel on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon over the coming weeks due to increased Hezbollah activity along the Lebanon-Israel border.
RECOMMENDATIONS
•Merchant and other vulnerable vessels are recommended to register with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa’s Voluntary Registration Scheme due to heightened piracy threat in the Indian ocean.
•Avoid being in vicinity of Iranian Behshad vessel. Avoid where possible transiting locations within the UAE and Iranian coastlines due to the risk from Iranian military boarding parties.
•Vessels operating in the Indian Ocean area are urged to heighten their vigilance due expanded risk area from Houthi missile and UAV attack and continued threat from Pirate Activity Groups (PAGs) in the area.
•Report any Suspicious Sightings and be aware of the risk of Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) with dummy crews and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) attacks.
•Consider utilising a digital monitoring system, which incorporates UAV/UUV drone monitoring to warn of potential attack and use of physical barriers, such as nets and underwater barriers, that can be deployed to prevent UUVs from approaching a ship. These barriers can entangle or obstruct the movement of a UUV.
•Ensure crew conduct drills and training exercises to respond to UUV threats so that they are well-prepared to take appropriate action in the event of an incident.
•Follow guidance on loitering munitions as per the OCIMF website: https://www.ocimf.org/publications/information-papers/loitering-munitions-%E2%80%93-the-threat-to-merchant-ships
•Implement and review BMP5 in particular section 2, which describes non-piracy threats and the Global Anti-Piracy Guide.
•Consider mentioning vessel location to Flag Authorities.
•Inform UKMTO/MSCHoA of vessel movements and ensure radar is kept on.
•Communicate with local agents for any local information or intelligence.
•Keep VHF Ch16 on and pay attention to advisories. Ensure strict surveillance of communications and establish communication with all approaching vessels.
•Do not allow small boats to approach or dock. Consider utilizing an armed security team aboard.
•Ensure there is Hard Cover available if on deck and that it is accessible.
•Ensure a Secondary Muster Station is considered and identified to crew and not just the citadel.
•Maintain Bridge Watches. (Please be aware at night, small, slow vessels without a wake are difficult to detect on radar). Keep Traffic on Upper Deck to a minimum
•Ensure all fire-fighting equipment is checked and available for immediate use. Including the emergency fire pump and that relevant maintenance has been conducted.
