KEY DEVELOPMENTS – COMMERCIAL INCIDENTS
During the monitoring period 10 – 16 June Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the
following incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region:
USV/MISSILE STRIKE: On 12 June the ship, MV TUTOR was reportedly hit twice by munitions approximately 66NM south west of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The initial strike from an unmanned surface vehicle (USV) hit the stern of the vessel before it was subsequently hit by an airborne projectile believed to be a missile. The vessel reported damage and was taking onboard water. The vessel was subsequently abandoned on 14 June as the vessel was no longer under the command of the crew.
MISISLE STRIKE: On 13 June a commercial vessel VERBENA was struck by two projectiles approximately 98NM east of Aden resulting in a fire onboard. The vessel was subsequently it by a third projectile but continued on its way as crew continued to assert control over the fires onboard. On 15 June the vessel was evacuated in the vicinity of 11 47’36’N, 043 37’12’E, 30NM northeast of Djibouti, as it was no longer under the command of the crew. The M/V Anna Meta responded to the VERBENA’s distress call and rendered assistance to recover the crew. One crew member was seriously injured and was medically evacuated by US forces to a coalition vessel nearby for medical attention.
MISSILE ATTACK: On 13 June a commercial vessel reported an explosion in close proximity to its location approximately 82NM northwest of Al Hudayday, Yemen. There was no damage reported to the vessel and crew reported safe. The vessel proceeded to its next port of call.
MISSILE ATTACK: On 16 June the vessel, CAPTAIN PARIS reported two explosions occurred within close proximity to its location in the Bab el-Mandeb. The crew and vessel were reported safe and continued on its voyage. This follows claims the same day by Houthi militants to have attacked two commercial vessels; the CAPTAIN PARIS in the Red Sea; and the LPG vessel HAPPY CONDOR in the Arabian Sea. Whilst the CAPTAIN PARIS attack was confirmed, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are believed to have been launched towards the HAPPY CONDOR but failed to reach the target.
IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE VESSEL: The Iranian intelligence vessel, the Behshad was reported on 2 June in the vicinity of Bostanu port in the Persian Gulf in Iranian territorial waters.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – MILITARY ACTIVITY
During the monitoring period 10 – 16 June RMS identified the following incidents involving US coalition forces in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, obtained from military and open sources:
UAV INTERCEPT: On 10 June, US coalition forces successfully destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) launched by Houthi militants into the Gulf of Aden. There were no injuries reported by US, coalition, or commercial vessels.
MISSILE INTERCEPT: On 11 June, US forces destroyed two anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) launchers in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen, considered as presenting an imminent threat to vessels in the region.
MISSILE INTERCEPT: On 12 June, the US forces destroyed three anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) launchers in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen and one Houthi unmanned aerial system (UAS) over the Red Sea. Later the same day Houthi militants launched a further two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen over the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported by vessels in the target area.
USV ATTACK: On 12 June, US forces confirmed a Houthi unmanned surface vessel (USV) struck the MV TUTOR, a Liberian flagged, Greek owned and operated vessel, in the Red Sea. The USV attack resulted in severe flooding and damage to the engine room. (COMMENT: The vessel was further struck by a missile and was later evacuated)
MISSILE ATTACK: On 13 June, Houthi militants launched two anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) into the Gulf of Aden. Both missiles struck the MV VERBENA, a Palauan-flagged, Ukrainian- owned, Polish-operated bulk cargo carrier. MV VERBENA had recently been docked in Malaysia and was enroute to Italy with wood construction material. The MV VERBENA reported damage and subsequent fires on board. One crew member was severely injured during the attack and was evacuated by aircraft from the USS Philippine Sea to a coalition vessel nearby for medical attention.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1802523101806186762/video/1
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – HOUTHI MISSILE STATISTICS
Figures 1 and 2 identifies the number of missiles, UAV, USVs and UUVs launched, or prepared to be imminently launched, by Houthi militants from Yemen targeting commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. Figures have incorporated statistics from vessels hit, near misses and pre- emptive strikes on-land in Yemen by US-led Coalition forces but not those resulting from large scale coordinated military action. In some cases the destined target of Houthi weapons including destroyed on-land in Yemen cannot not be verified and has therefore been categorised as ‘Not Known’ (NK). Where no dates are provided there were no reported incidents or data available for that period.
ANALYSIS: The monitoring period saw a similar but more consistent approach to Houthi weapon launches compared with their activity last week. Once again the majority of Houthi attacks have been focused on the Red Sea region but still continue to target vessels in the Gulf of Aden. This may be due to greater success rates in the Red Sea following positive strikes last week and this week on commercial vessels, believed to be linked to the use of radar stations in northern Yemen and along Yemen’s Red Sea coast which have been subject to recent targeting by US and coalition forces.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – SECURITY INCIDENT MAPPING
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
During the monitoring period 10 – 16 June RMS identified the following key regional developments:
• Increased rhetoric between both Israeli’s and Hezbollah in Lebanon indicates that military escalation on the border region is likely in the coming weeks. Despite this, both are still keen to avoid uncontrolled confrontation. A full-scale invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel remains unlikely, however increased Israeli attacks north of the Litanin River is heightened. Hezbollah has indicated it will not cease hostilities until Israel’s war in Gaza stops.
• Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed he would not participate in French led efforts to diffuse tensions between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, due to recent perceived hostile polices adopted by France towards Israel.
• The departure of Benny Gantz from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has resulted in Netanyahu having to align himself closer to smaller ultranationalist parties to help him govern. These parties are less akin to agree to any ceasefire agreements.
• On 15 June thousands of protestors gathered across several locations in Israel to demand a hostage swap deal and new elections as to dismiss PM Netanyahu’s government.
• On 16 June the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) confirmed it will take “tactical pauses” for 11 hours a day, between 0800-1900 local time to allow deliveries of humanitarian aid into Gaza, in coordination with the United Nations and international aid organisations. However Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced he was unaware of the decision.
• The US announced it would be temporarily removing its aid pier from the Gazan coast due to poor weather conditions.
• On 14 June the G7 leaders condemned Iran’s most recent expansion of its nuclear programme. The condemnation comes following a report by the IAEA indicating Iran is now operating dozens of advanced centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment site, and intends to install thousands more centrifuges at both its Fordow and Natanz sites contrary which is contrary to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed with Iran in 2015. The G7 also warned against Iran’s transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia in which it would enforce new measures against the country.
• There have been no further developments regarding the acceptance of the ceasefire proposal put forward by the US government. The proposal which calls for a three-stage timetable would see a temporary stop to the fighting and the release of some captives in its first stage. Negotiations would continues on the delivery of the next two stages, which would include a permanent ceasefire. While Israel has not made any firm statements on the issue, several politicians including Netanyahu have indicated that the war needs to continue until Hamas is destroyed. Meanwhile, whilst Hamas has made some positive inferences to the proposal, they have requested changes, the details of which remain unclear at this stage.
ASSESSMENT
• US-led airstrikes to continue to target Houthi militant assets in northern Yemen in efforts to degrade their weapons and capability. In particular radar stations used by Houthis to have recently targeted commercial vessels in the region.
• Houthis will likely continue to retain its aerial capability to target commercial vessels in the region.
• Houthi long-range attacks in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean against commercial shipping will continue to face challenges compared to their operations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
• Vessels voyaging through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is at a high risk of vessel damage from Houthi aerial attacks; whilst vessels passing through the Indian Ocean and near the Somali coastline is at heightened risk of being targeted by pirate action groups (PAG).
• Vessels linked to Israel, the US and UK will remain primary, but not sole targets for Houthi militants. Houthi use of inaccurate data and intelligence pertaining to target identification, and/or maintaining an effective command and control procedure with local units, places non Israeli, US and UK vessels at a risk of being misidentified, including Russian and Chinese linked vessels.
• The US and its partners will continue to conduct pre-emptive strikes against Houthi targets on-land in an attempt to degrade Houthi military capability and prevent it to be used to target commercial shipping and from being used as a platform to target Israel.
• The US will continue its efforts to intercept vessels smuggling weapon components from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen and enhance its intelligence collection methods to support
interdiction operations, as well as coordinate military strikes against Houthi weapon sites, facilities and capabilities.
• The US government will continue to push for a diplomatic solution for the Israel-Hamas conflict with regional partners due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and attempt to prevent escalatory military activity in the region, particularly in Lebanon.
• Any ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, may see a temporary pause in attacks, but seems unlikely at present.
• High likelihood of intensified attacks by Israel on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon over the coming weeks due to increased Hezbollah activity along the Lebanon-Israel border.
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Merchant and other vulnerable vessels are recommended to register with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa’s Voluntary Registration Scheme due to heightened piracy threat in the Indian ocean.
• Avoid being in vicinity of Iranian Behshad vessel. Avoid where possible transiting locations within the UAE and Iranian coastlines due to the risk from Iranian military boarding parties.
• Vessels operating in the Indian Ocean area are urged to heighten their vigilance due expanded risk area from Houthi missile and UAV attack and continued threat from Pirate Activity Groups (PAGs) in the area.
• Report any Suspicious Sightings and be aware of the risk of Unmanned aerial Vehicle (UAV) / drone and Uncrewed Surface Vehicle (USV) attack.
• Consider utilising a digital monitoring system, which incorporates UAV/UUV drone monitoring to warn of potential attack and use of physical barriers, such as nets and underwater barriers, that can be deployed to prevent UUVs from approaching a ship. These barriers can entangle or obstruct the movement of a UUV.
• Ensure crew conduct drills and training exercises to respond to UUV threats so that they are well-prepared to take appropriate action in the event of an incident.
• Follow guidance on loitering munitions as per the OCIMF website: https://www.ocimf.org/publications/information-papers/loitering-munitions-%E2%80%93-the-threat-to-merchant-ships
• Implement and review BMP5 in particular section 2, which describes non-piracy threats and the Global Anti-Piracy Guide.
• Consider mentioning vessel location to Flag Authorities.
• Inform UKMTO/MSCHoA of vessel movements and ensure radar is kept on.
• Communicate with local agents for any local information or intelligence.
• Keep VHF Ch16 on and pay attention to advisories. Ensure strict surveillance of communications and establish communication with all approaching vessels.
• Do not allow small boats to approach or dock. Consider utilizing an armed security team aboard.
• Ensure there is Hard Cover available if on deck and that it is accessible.
• Ensure a Secondary Muster Station is considered and identified to crew and not just the citadel.
• Maintain Bridge Watches. (Please be aware at night, small, slow vessels without a wake are difficult to detect on radar). Keep Traffic on Upper Deck to a minimum
• Ensure all fire-fighting equipment is checked and available for immediate use. Including the emergency fire pump and that relevant maintenance has been conducted.
