KEY DEVELOPMENTS – COMMERCIAL INCIDENTS
During the monitoring period 27 May – 2 June Regal Maritime Solutions (RMS) identified the following incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region:
MISSILE STRIKE: On 28 May, three missiles delivered during two separate missile attacks struck the Marshall Island flagged, Greek owned bulk carrier, the MV LAAX approximately 33NM northwest of Al Mukha, Yemen. The vessel consequently sustained damaged, but the crew was reported safe. The vessel was able to continue its voyage and proceeded to its next port of call.
MISSILE ATTACK: On 1 June the Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carrier AL SALAM whilst transiting the southern Red Sea when it reported witnessing an explosion, believed to be from a missile attack, occurring within 1NM from the vessel. The incident occurred approximately 48NM southwest of Al Hudaydah. The vessel and crew were reported safe and continued to their next port of call.
IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE VESSEL: The Iranian intelligence vessel, the Behshad was reported on 2 June in the vicinity of Bostanu port in the Persian Gulf in Iranian territorial waters.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – MILITARY ACTIVITY
During the monitoring period 27 May – 2 June RMS identified the following incidents involving US coalition forces in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, obtained from military and open sources:
UAV INTERCEPT: On 27 May, around 0400 local time, US forces destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) over the Red Sea, launched from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen.
MISSILE STRIKE: On 28 May between 1200 and 1340 local time, Houthis militants launched five anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Red Sea. The MV LAAX, a Marshall Island flagged, Greek owned and operated bulk carrier, reported being struck by three of the missiles, but continued its voyage. No injuries were reported.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 28 May, between 1004 and 1330 local time, US forces destroyed five UAVs over the Red Sea, that had been launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
MISSILE INTERCEPT: On 28 May, at approximately 2040 local time, US forces conducted a pre-emptive strike on a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen, destroying two missile launchers.
MISSILE ATTACK: On 28 May, at approximately 2330 local time, Houthi militants launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Red Sea. No injuries or damage was reported by US, coalition, or commercial vessels
UAV INTERCEPT: On 29 May, between 0125 and 0138 local time, US forces destroyed two UAVs over the Red Sea launched from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 30 May, between approximately 1515 and 1700 local time, US forces destroyed eight UAVs in Houthi controlled areas of Yemen and over the Red Sea.
COORDIANTED MILITARY ACTION: On 30 May, US and UK armed forces conducted pre-emptive strikes against 13 Houthi targets in Houthi controlled areas of Yemen in the regions of Sana’a, Hodaidah and Taiz.
UAV ATTACK: On 31 May, at approximately 0130 local time, Houthi militants launched one UAV from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Red Sea, which subsequently crashed in the Red Sea with no reported injuries or damage reported to US, coalition, or commercial vessels.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 31 May, between 0253 and 2300 local time, US forces destroyed one UAV over the Gulf of Aden and three UAV over the Red Sea that were launched from Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
MISSILE ATTACK: On 31 May, at approximately 2130 local time, Houthi militants launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Gulf of Aden. There were no injuries or damage reported by US, coalition or commercial ships.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 1 June, between 0900 and 1930 local time, US forces destroyed one Houthi UAV in the southern Red Sea. US forces also observed two other UAVs crash into the Red Sea. No injuries or damage was reported.
MISSILE INTERCEPT: On 1 June, between 1900 and 2330 local time, US forces engaged and destroyed two Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) in the southern Red Sea. The ASBM were fired in the direction of USS Gravely and were destroyed in self-defence. No damage or injuries were reported.
UAV INTERCEPT: On 2 June, US forces conducted a pre-emptive engagement over the southern Red Sea, destroying one Houthi UAV.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – HOUTHI MISSILE STATISTICS
Figures 1 and 2 identifies the number of missiles, UAV, USVs and UUVs launched, or prepared to be imminently launched, by Houthi militants from Yemen targeting commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions. Figures have incorporated statistics from vessels hit, near misses and pre- emptive strikes on-land in Yemen by US-led Coalition forces but not those resulting from large scale coordinated military action. In some cases the destined target of Houthi weapons including destroyed on-land in Yemen cannot not be verified and has therefore been categorised as ‘Not Known’ (NK). Where no dates are provided there were no reported incidents or data available for that period.
ANALYSIS: The monitoring period saw a surge in the number of aerial attacks by Houthi militants compared to recent weeks, with the majority of attacks focused on the southern Red Sea region utilising a combination of UAVs and missiles. There was also a marked increase in the number of missiles launched by Houthi forces over the past week compared to previous weeks, which largely consisted of UAV attacks. The majority of weapon systems identified as ‘Not Known’ were destroyed on the ground during US and UK armed forces on 30 May.
KEY DEVELOPMENTS – SECURITY INCIDENT MAPPING
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
During the monitoring period 27 May – 2 June RMS identified the following key regional developments:
The Houthis on 1 June, claimed to have directly struck three commercial vessels – the bulk carrier MAINA in the Red Sea and again in the Arabian Sea, Liquified Natural Gas carrier AL ORAIG in the Indian Ocean, and the crude tanker ABLIANI in the Red Sea. None of these incidents have been independently corroborated by international naval forces or the vessel operators.
In addition, the Houthi’s claimed to have attacked the US aircraft carrier, the USS Dwight Eisenhower on 31 May in the Red Sea, in response to joint airstrikes by the US and UK armed forces on its territory on 30 May. The claims have not been corroborated or acknowledged by the US military.
US President Joe Biden has called on Hamas to accept the latest Israeli proposal for a hostage deal and ceasefire as to end the Israel-Hamas war, however Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised that a permanent ceasefire cannot happen until Hamas is destroyed.
On 31 May, the European Union announced new sanctions against six people and three Iranian entities for their role in the transfer of UAVs to Russia as well as to Houthi militants in Yemen. Iranian Foreign Minister spokesperson condemned the new sanctions, claiming such actions are “outdated and ineffective and aimed at pleasing the United States and the Zionist regime (Israel)”
On 1 June, Israeli Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Bengvir announced their intent to leave the governing coalition, toppling the Israeli government, should Prime Minister Netanyahu accept the ceasefire proposal brought forward by US President Biden.
On 2 June, the Israeli war cabinet convened to discuss a hostage release and ceasefire proposal put forth by US President Biden ahead of making an decision on the matter.
On 2 June, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry stated that Hamas welcomed the ceasefire and hostage release proposal presented by US President Biden.
On 2 June, Iranian Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani began a state visit to Lebanon according to Iranian state media, the purpose of which was to meet government officials and senior members of armed groups belonging to the so-called “axis of resistance” as to discuss plans aimed at targeting and undermining Israel.
Iran and Israel’s confrontations are likely to remain at the shadow level in the coming months. Iranian strikes on Israeli territory, as seen on the weekend of 13 and 14 April, are unlikely to repeat. However, Iran will continue to leverage its proxy networks in the region to target Israel.
Hezbollah and Israel will continue tit-for-tat cross border attacks as to avoid potential escalation. Nevertheless, the potential for miscalculation remains and an attack on areas in Lebanon further north and beyond the southern Hezbollah strongholds, or an attack on Israel further south than the northern border area has potential to cause overt conflict.
ASSESSMENT
Further aerial assaults by Houthi militants are likely in the coming days, mostly in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but there may be a limited number of attempts to target vessels in the Indian Ocean. Successful Houthi long-range attack in the Indian Ocean is low compared to vessels targeted in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Increased coordination is expected between Iran and axis of resistance members in particular with Hezbollah and armed groups operating from Syria, demonstrated by the Iranian Foreign Minister’s visits to the countries.
Vessels voyaging through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is at a high risk of vessel damage from Houthi aerial attacks; whilst vessels passing through the Indian Ocean and near the Somali coastline is at heightened risk of being targeted by pirate action groups (PAG).
Vessels linked to Israel, the US and UK will remain primary, but not sole targets for Houthi militants. Houthi use of inaccurate data and intelligence pertaining to target identification, and/or maintaining an effective command and control procedure with local units, places non Israeli, US and UK vessels at a risk of being misidentified, including Russian and Chinese linked vessels.
Any ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, may see a temporary pause in attacks.
The US and its partners will continue to conduct pre-emptive strikes against Houthi targets on-land in an attempt to degrade Houthi military capability and prevent it to be used to target commercial shipping and from being used as a platform to target Israel.
The US will continue its efforts to intercept vessels smuggling weapon components from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen and enhance its intelligence collection methods to support interdiction operations, as well as coordinate military strikes against Houthi weapon sites, facilities and capabilities.
The US government will continue to push for a diplomatic solution for the Israel-Hamas conflict with regional partners due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and attempt to prevent escalatory military activity by the Israeli government in Rafah which may heighten the risk to civilians.
RECOMMENDATIONS
- Merchant and other vulnerable vessels are recommended to register with the Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa’s Voluntary Registration Scheme due to heightened piracy threat in the Indian ocean.
- Avoid being in vicinity of Iranian Behshad vessel. Avoid where possible transiting locations within the UAE and Iranian coastlines due to the risk from Iranian military boarding parties.
- Vessels operating in the Indian Ocean area are urged to heighten their vigilance due expanded risk area from Houthi missile and UAV attack and continued threat from Pirate Activity Groups (PAGs) in the area.
- Report any Suspicious Sightings and be aware of the risk of Unmanned aerial Vehicle (UAV) / drone and Uncrewed Surface Vehicle (USV) attack.
- Consider utilising a digital monitoring system, which incorporates UAV/UUV drone monitoring to warn of potential attack and use of physical barriers, such as nets and underwater barriers, that can be deployed to prevent UUVs from approaching a ship. These barriers can entangle or obstruct the movement of a UUV..
- Ensure crew conduct drills and training exercises to respond to UUV threats so that they are well-prepared to take appropriate action in the event of an incident.
- Follow guidance on loitering munitions as per the OCIMF website: https://www.ocimf.org/publications/information-papers/loitering-munitions-%E2%80%93-the-threat-to-merchant-ships
- Implement and review BMP5 in particular section 2, which describes non-piracy threats and the Global Anti-Piracy Guide.
- Consider mentioning vessel location to Flag Authorities.
- Inform UKMTO/MSCHoA of vessel movements and ensure radar is kept on.
- Communicate with local agents for any local information or intelligence.
- Keep VHF Ch16 on and pay attention to advisories. Ensure strict surveillance of communications and establish communication with all approaching vessels.
- Do not allow small boats to approach or dock. Consider utilizing an armed security team aboard.
- Ensure there is Hard Cover available if on deck and that it is accessible.
- Ensure a Secondary Muster Station is considered and identified to crew and not just the citadel.
- Maintain Bridge Watches. (Please be aware at night, small, slow vessels without a wake are difficult to detect on radar). Keep Traffic on Upper Deck to a minimum
- Ensure all fire-fighting equipment is checked and available for immediate use. Including the emergency fire pump and that relevant maintenance has been conducted.
